Realtor.com Says Relief Is Coming to the Housing Market. Here’s the Full 2026 Forecast.

 

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Realtor.com Says Relief Is Coming to the Housing Market. Here’s the Full 2026 Forecast.

The U.S. housing market has been stuck in a pressure cooker for years now. 

Buyers pushed to their limit. Sellers reluctant to give up their ultra-low mortgage rates. Renters squeezed as pandemic-era housing shortages drove rents to record highs. 

But according to Realtor.com’s new 2026 Housing Forecast, that long stretch of imbalance will finally start to ease next year. 

This isn’t a dramatic rebound. It’s a gradual correction that finally helps more buyers move. And if you spend every day working in housing, that shift matters.

The forecast shows a market inching back toward balance. Mortgage rates hold steadier. Price growth cools. Inventory keeps rising. Rents soften where new supply hits. 

None of these shifts will solve the affordability crisis, but together they create a better playing field for consumers and those helping them move.

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, describes the moment as a turning point.

“After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market. Incomes climbing faster than inflation as mortgage rates steady at a lower level create space for affordability to improve. Declining rental prices will continue to give renters more relief from pandemic highs. It’s not a dramatic reset, but it’s a meaningful shift that moves the market back toward balance.”

 

Affordability Improves as Payments Ease for Buyers

Realtor.com forecasts the average 30-year mortgage rate holding near 6.3% in 2026, down slightly from 6.6% in 2025. 

As Byron pointed out during the Hot Sheet, that 6.3% is where we are now, and (apparently) where we can expect to stay for most, if not all, the coming year: 

“No drumroll needed because there isn’t much excitement. It’s exactly where we’re at today on the average. And at the end of the year, Danielle Hale and the team believe it’s going to be exactly where we’re ending the year today… We’re at 6.3 today, we’re gonna be at a 6.3 average throughout the year, and, oh, by the way, we’re going to end the year at 6.3%. 

“Based on the information they’re looking at…they’re saying next year is going to be super boring as it relates to the rate.” 

The plus side? Rate stability gives buyers breathing room and helps reshape confidence around timing.

Home prices are expected to rise 2.2% next year after 2.0% in 2025. Because consumer inflation is projected above 3%, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices will decline for the second year in a row. 

The typical monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home is expected to fall 1.3% year over year, bringing the payment share of income down to 29.3%. 

That’ll be the first time affordability falls below the 30% threshold since 2022.

It may not feel like a celebration, but it is real progress for first-time and price-sensitive buyers. Hale says even a measured shift like this can make a tangible difference:

“The path back toward historic levels of affordability will be gradual, but 2026 takes a solid step in the right direction. For many buyers who have spent years navigating limited options and steep competition, a balanced market with more choices and slightly lower cost burdens can be a game-changer, even if conditions remain far from easy.”

More Homes for Sale Put Balance Back in Play

Inventory recovery continues as more homeowners list and more builders deliver new supply. 

Active listings are expected to rise 8.9% year over year, marking the third straight year of increases. By the end of 2026, inventory should sit only 12% below pre-2020 norms, improving from a 19% deficit in 2025 and nearly 30% in 2024.

With supply growing faster than demand, Realtor.com predicts the housing market will average 4.6 months of inventory. That keeps the market in balanced territory and keeps pressure on pricing discipline.

Existing-home sales will rise 1.7% to 4.13 million units, which still falls well short of the 5.28 million annual average from 2013 to 2019. One major reason is the lock-in effect. Roughly 4 in 5 mortgage-holding homeowners have a rate below 6%, and many are not willing to trade it in unless life circumstances require it.

Renters will continue to get some relief, too. National rents are expected to drop 1.0%, while vacancy rates approach or exceed the 7.2% historical average thanks to a surge in multifamily development. 

The upshot? More consumers will have options and leverage in their housing choices.

Different Markets, Very Different Outcomes

The national story is important, but local results are what shape real decisions. Realtor.com’s metro-level projections show wide variation. Some areas are entering recovery. Others are still descending. 

Here are the five markets where sales are expected to grow the most in 2026:

• Worcester, MA–CT.: +12.6%

• Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA: +8.1%

• Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA: +7.7%

• Baton Rouge, LA: +7.1%

• Providence-Warwick, RI–MA: +7.1%

Here are the five markets forecast to see the strongest price growth:

• Toledo, OH: +13.1%

• Syracuse, NY: +12.4%

• Rochester, NY: +10.3%

• Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, PA: +10.9%

• Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: +9.5%

And here are the five metros where home prices are expected to decline:

• Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL: -10.2%

• North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL: -8.9%

• Raleigh, NC: -3.7%

• Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: -0.3%

• Boise City, ID: -0.8%

Regional splits like these create opportunities for those who study the shifts closely. A household moving from one of the declining markets to one of the rising ones will face a completely different affordability and competition landscape. 

Risks to Watch and What They Could Change

The outlook is cautiously optimistic, but not risk-free. Policy uncertainty around fiscal and trade decisions could influence inflation and mortgage rates. 

A weaker labor market could reduce demand. And if inflation runs hotter than expected, renewed rate volatility could cause buyers to pause.

Even so, the overall direction matters. More inventory, slowing price growth, slightly lower monthly costs, and softer rents all point to a housing environment that is gradually getting easier to navigate. The shift may feel slow, but slow progress is still progress. 

2026 opens more doors than it closes.

 

Key Details: 

• Realtor.com forecasts easing mortgage rates near 6.3% and an 8.9% increase in active inventory in 2026. 

• Existing-home sales are expected to reach 4.13 million, while affordability improves as monthly payments fall to 29.3% of median income. 

• Rent prices are projected to decline 1.0% as vacancy rates rise toward 7.2%.

 

Sarah Lentz | Dec 3, 2025 | Housing Market

https://nowbam.com/realtor-com-says-relief-is-coming-to-the-housing-market-heres-the-full-2026-forecast/

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