Posts

Summer in San Francisco

Image
“Just Thinking" The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco. Despite its popularity, there is no evidence Mark Twain ever uttered that line. Twain lived in San Francisco during the mid‑1860s, writing for newspapers like the Morning Call and Golden Era. The city’s chaos, diversity, and Gold Rush eccentricity shaped his early literary voice. It was also a period when Twain transformed from Samuel Clemens into Mark Twain. His time in San Francisco may have something to do with that quote being attributed to him. The quote about San Francisco’s climate pops in my head several times throughout the year, but especially when we get a little taste of winter. With this week’s rain and cold snap, I think temperatures even dipped into the low 40s. It feels a bit silly to complain when you look at the weather that the folks in other parts of the country. After years of playing and coaching baseball, I’ve simply come to accept that the moment practice begins, so do the rain a...

U.S. Housing Now the Most Unaffordable in History? 7 Data Points You Won’t See in Doomer Tweets

Image
Check Out This Weeks Newsletter We live in a screenshot economy. A chart (or headline) pops up on your feed, racks up thousands of likes and shares, and in the eyes of consumers, it turns into proof. Proof that housing is doomed. Proof that affordability has never been worse. Proof that the next bubble is already here.  No one loves a moment like this more than housing doomers. They’ve been calling for the next crash for years, and posts like the one below—currently making the rounds on X—fit into that narrative.    Charts travel fast. Context doesn’t.  Real estate professionals know that affordability encompasses numerous factors, including home prices, mortgage rates, wages, inventory, and more.  If the chart above were the whole story, the outlook would be bleak. And yes, affordability issues are a hurdle right now. But several data points are showing gradual improvement in the housing market. It’s the kind you won’t see in doomer posts.  Let’s...

The Price You Set Can Make (or Break) Your Sale

Image
There’s one decision you're going to make when you sell that determines whether your house sells quickly, or it sits. Whether buyers make an offer, or scroll past it. Whether you walk away with the maximum return, or you end up cutting the price later. And that’s your asking price . The #1 Mistake Sellers Make Today: Trusting the Wrong Number If you’re thinking of moving and trying to figure out what your house may sell for, it’s tempting to start with an online home value tool. They’re fast, free, and easy. And you don’t have to talk to anyone. But here’s the problem: they don’t know your house. And that can be a bigger drawback than you realize. Where Online Estimates Fall Short  Online tools often lag behind the market. They look in the rearview mirror, relying on closed sales and delayed information. And in that sense, they’re using incomplete data . That’s not a miss in how these systems are built. Some information just isn’t available online. Bankrate explains: “ While these ...

The Real Reason Home Sales Slowed in January. And It’s Not What You Think.

Image
If you saw headlines that talked about how “ home sales fell sharply in January ,” it probably raised an eyebrow – especially if you’re thinking about selling your house. But context matters. Yes, in January, home sales declined. But that has more to do with seasonality and the weather than it does with any big drop off in demand.  What’s Really Behind the Decline?   Reports coming out of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) say the pace of home sales fell roughly 8.4% last month compared to the month before. And that’s true. But it isn’t necessarily cause for alarm.  Data show it’s normal for sales to dip in January. In the last 4 years, that pattern has held true all but once. And sure, the decline we saw this year was a steeper drop off than the norm ( the yellow bars on the right ), but that can be explained too. More on that in a moment. The really important part you’re not going to get from the headlines is this: typically speaking, the pace of home s...

Ricky Carruth - Home Sales Crash - Here's What's Coming

Image
I follow a highly successful agent and coach out of Alabama named Ricky Carruth, who sends out weekly real estate market updates by email. His breakdown of the market this week was so clear, concise, and on point that I felt it was worth sharing. Last week I told you January existing home sales would be down. They were. Down 8.3%. Everyone's freaking out. But let me show you what's ACTUALLY happening. December pending sales were down 9.5%. Pending sales turn into existing home sales 30-60 days later. Math, not magic. WHY were December pendings down? Inventory DROPPED 18% in one month. Buyers had nothing to choose from. So they waited. Then rates dropped under 6%. Market went bonkers for a week. Multiple offers. Above asking. Then it cooled when rates ticked back up. Exactly what I said would happen. Here's what's coming next week: January PENDING home sales report drops. It's going to be massive. Which means February and March closings SURGE. About the spring rush: ...

Last Stop - San Francisco

Image
“Just Thinking" With the start of baseball season, I found myself thinking back to an article I wrote last July. On July 25th, I reflected on Justin Verlander finally earning his first win as a Giant, he had gone winless through his first 16 starts, posting a 0–8 record during that stretch. On July 23 rd he beat the Braves, he pitched 5 scoreless innings for a 9–3 victory putting an end to the longest winless streak of his career. None of this, of course, diminishes Verlander’s Hall of Fame résumé: 266 career wins, nine All-Star selections, two World Series championships, the 2011 AL MVP, the 2017 ALCS MVP, three AL Cy Young Awards, and three career no-hitters. Revisiting that moment got me thinking about all the great players who have come to the Giants after establishing their names and their legacies elsewhere. I know that the Dodgers have the deep pockets and have used them to secure top‑tier talent. Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman are all...

The Weekend Salute

Image
  “Just Thinking" I was driving home from San Francisco on a Friday night a couple of weeks ago, just easing onto the Bay Bridge, when I noticed the digital clock on the dashboard flip to 5:00. Growing up in The City, 5:00 on a Friday wasn’t just a time, it was a signal. The workweek ended, the weekend began. Like clockwork, you’d tune the radio to 104.5 FM, KFOG, because every Friday at 5:00 PM meant The Weekend Salute. The opening notes of “Smoke Two Joints” by The Toyes would roll out over the airwaves, officially kicking off the weekend. It was a ritual Fogheads across the Bay Area instantly recognized, an unofficial alarm bell telling you it was time to relax, to exhale and get into weekend mode, here comes that Friday feeling again. This was before satellite radio, before playlists and algorithms, before Apple Music and Spotify decided what we might like next. As car radios evolved from strictly AM to AM/FM, so did we. We moved on from the station of our youth—KFRC 610 AM, w...