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What's Up Doc

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  “Just Thinking" May 1 st , Happy May Day, the Feast of St. Joseph the Worker. May is also the Month of Mary, making May 1st a meaningful opening to a month centered on faith, humility, and devotion. We celebrated this in parochial school by placing a crown of flowers on a statue of Mary, while singing “Ave Maria”. Growing up in the 60s, there were countless influences that helped shape my character. Being raised in San Francisco, those influences were far more open‑minded than they might have been in other parts of the country. As a young kid with a head full of mush, I was living at ground zero for the Summer of Love in 1967, when tens of thousands of young people flocked to the city embracing peace, free love, psychedelics, and anti‑war protests. A favorite outing for the Barberini family was jumping into the County Squire for a trip to Haight and Ashbury to see the hippies, followed by a stop at Play Land for Its-It’s. Luckily for this young man, I was kept grounded by a stro...

NAR Revises 2026 Forecast as Rising Rates & Inflation Slow Recovery

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  Check Out This Weeks Newsletter   NAR’s Dr. Lawrence Yun cuts his 2026 housing forecast, slashing projected existing-home sales growth from 14% to 4% as rising rates and inflation hit demand. The 2026 rebound story has officially hit a snag.  The early signals are already showing up in slower sales activity and a more cautious buyer pool, setting the tone for a year that for many feels tighter than expected. The National Association of REALTORS ® has now formalized that change in direction.  Dr. Lawrence Yun revised down his existing-home sales forecast by 10 percentage points, while also pulling new-home sales expectations back to flat. His update shows a market responding quickly to higher borrowing costs and softer demand conditions. NAR’s 2026 Forecast Downgrade NAR came into 2026 expecting a 14% jump in existing-home sales, but is now projecting 4%. Dr. Yun is pointing to affordability pressure and a slow start to the year as reasons to di...

San Francisco Earthquake 1906

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  “Just Thinking" One hundred and twenty years ago this week, on the morning of April 18, 1906, at 5:13 a.m., one of the most powerful earthquakes in American history struck San Francisco. It is estimated to be 8.0 on the Richter scale, the quake killed approximately 3,000 people and toppled countless buildings. The earthquake was caused by a massive rupture along the San Andreas Fault, it tore through a segment nearly 275 miles long, with shockwaves felt as far north as southern Oregon and as far south as Los Angeles. San Francisco’s infrastructure proved especially vulnerable. Brick buildings crumbled, and the city’s iconic wooden Victorian homes were badly damaged. Almost immediately, fires erupted across the city. Broken water mains left firefighters powerless to contain the flames, and within hours, multiple firestorms merged into a citywide inferno. By April 23, most of the fires had finally been extinguished, allowing authorities to begin the daunting task of rebuilding. Ne...

What the Latest Data Reveals About the Home Seller Mindset

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  Check Out this Weeks Newsletter The National Association of Realtors reports sellers lived in their homes 11 years, with 51% cutting price 4+ times and 27% offering incentives to close deals. The NAR 2026 Generational Trends report takes a detailed look at who is selling, why, and what the path from list to close actually looks like. The data spans motivation, tenure, time on market, and the incentives sellers are using to get deals done. Sellers are coming in with personal reasons for moving and deep attachment to their homes. Their expectations about value don’t always line up with what the market is telling them, and understanding where those expectations come from is the first step to managing them well. Read on for the biggest seller takeaways and what they mean for your listing conversations.  Why Sellers Are Moving and How That Impacts Timing If you want to get a read on how a listing is going to go, start with the “why.” Why a seller is ...

Just Thinking About Bay Area Racetracks

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“Just Thinking" I was driving to “The City” the other day, on one of my many treks from Martinez to SF. Depending on whether I have other stops along the way, what time of day it is or what the traffic pattern is, will determine which path I take. If I have other stops in Contra Costa County, I will take Highway 680 to Highway 24 through the Caldecott Tunnel, to Highway 580 and onto the Bay Bridge. Or Leaving Martinez, West on Highway 4 down to Highway 80 onto the Bay Bridge and into San Francisco. Although Highway 4 to 80 is a straighter line, it is more susceptible to traffic delays, so I will usually go into “The City” on Highway 24 and come home on Highway 80 to 4. A couple weeks ago on a Friday, mid-morning I was heading into “The City” on Highway 80 when I was passing Golden Gate, Golden Gate, Golden Gate Fields and I thought, what a shame that it has closed,  I had only been there on a couple occasions, but it was a good time and a salute to the golden days of horse racing....

First-Time Buyers Fall to 21% of the Market, the Lowest Share on Record

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  Check Out This Weeks Newsletter A decade ago, first-time buyers made up a much larger piece of the market and played a central role in keeping housing demand moving. Their presence has steadily declined, and the impact is starting to show across every layer of the market. The National Association of Realtors’ 2026 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report makes it clear how difficult entry has become. Buyers are taking longer to save, thanks largely to other rising costs, including rent and other must-haves. They’re also leaning more on outside help and making tougher decisions just to close a deal. Younger buyers still want to own a home. Half of buyers ages 27 to 35 say that goal alone is driving their decision to buy. First-Time Buyers Are Now Just 21% of the Market First-time buyers used to be the engine that kept the housing market moving. They filled the entry-level tier and created demand for starter homes, which helped keep transacti...

Rent or Buy? The Real Tradeoff Most People Don’t Talk About

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You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now? It’s a question a lot of people are asking. With today’s home prices and mortgage rates, renting can feel like the easier path. In some cases, it might even seem like the only realistic option right now. And if that’s where you are, there’s nothing wrong with that. But if you’re weighing the decision, there’s one part of the conversation that doesn’t get talked about enough. It’s what each choice does for your future. What Renting Really Gets You (And What It Doesn’t) Depending on your situation, renting does have some advantages: Lower upfront costs. Less responsibility. More flexibility to move when you want. But even with those benefits, a Bank of America survey found 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And that concern comes down to one thing: you’re not building anything for your future. As Yahoo Finance explains: “Paying rent doesn't b...