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The 1 Factor That Explains Everything Happening with Home Prices Right Now

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You've probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that's true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are. Some areas are still seeing solid price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what's causing all of that variation?   It All Comes Down to Inventory Here's the simple version: When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options. More options, means less competition. Less competition means sellers can't push prices as high. On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up. That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country.  Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are...

A Great Day at the Ballpark

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“Just Thinking" Last week I went on a full-on Giants rant, and I thought I got it out of my system… but nope, I got sucked right back in. I was at the game today at Pac Bell Park, SBC Park, AT&T Park… I mean, Oracle Park, watching them take on the Oakland, Sacramento, Las Vegas A’s. It was a beautiful day in the city, and I enjoyed being out at the park. The Giants take a 6–5 lead into the 9th. Two on, two out. You’re thinking, just get one more out and get out of here. Instead? The bullpen gives up four straight hits. Four runs. Game over. They gave up seven runs over the last three innings. Terrible. Just terrible. I did, however, have some thoughts out at the old ballpark today that are worth sharing. Was Brian Wilson, the Giants closer from 2008 to 2012, a nut job, a trendsetter, or just ahead of his time? I’m sitting there at the game, and you look at the Giants, they are wearing orange spikes, purple spikes, black and white spikes. The A’s? Green, gold, white, black spik...

Nearly Half of All Home Sellers Are Giving Concessions to Buyers Right Now

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  Check Out This Weeks Newsletter Redfin reports that 46.2% of U.S. home sellers gave concessions to buyers in May 2026, the highest share on record for that month. Nearly half of all U.S. home sellers handed buyers a concession in May, the highest share Redfin has recorded for that month in its history. According to Redfin’s latest report, 46.2% of home sales included a seller concession in May 2026, up from 43.1% a year earlier. There are currently 47% more sellers than buyers in the U.S., and with mortgage rates and home prices still historically high, buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years. Listings are piling up, and sellers in most markets are competing hard to get deals done. Here’s where concession rates are highest and where they’re lowest.  Why Concession Rates Are at a Record High The supply and demand imbalance is driving everything, and it runs deepest in the Sun Belt. Those metros built aggressively to meet pandemic-era demand and are now sitting on ...

That House That’s Been Sitting Could Be Your Best Shot at a Deal

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That House That’s Been Sitting Could Be Your Best Shot at a Deal Open up a home search and you'll see them. Listings that have been on the market for two months. Three. Some longer. Most buyers scroll right past them, assuming something’s wrong with the house. But that instinct could be costing you, since the longer a home sits, the more motivated the seller usually gets. Where Some Buyers Are Finding Better Deals If affordability has been your #1 hurdle to buying, here’s a surprisingly simple strategy that could help you finally get your foot in the door. Start with the homes that have been sitting the longest. That’s often where the best deals are. Here’s why. Data from Realtor.com shows there’s a connection between longer time on the market and lower sales prices. Basically, the longer a house sits, the more likely it is that the seller will reduce the price (see graph below) :   The blue line tracks how long homes stay on the market, while the green line trac...

June Swoon

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“Just Thinking" It’s the middle of June, and for the Giants this is usually when the annual “June Swoon” sets in, but this year, it raises a different question: how do you swoon in June when the entire season has already felt like one long swoon? And yet, I’ll admit, I’ve been sucked in at times. I’ve let myself believe a stretch of decent baseball meant something was turning. Only to get pulled right back to reality, like so many fans, with another gut-punch loss just when it felt like things might finally be different. My hook on changing the channel is way quicker than Tony Vitello’s hook with the bullpen and honestly, that’s burned me more than once this year. I’m thinking of June 10 th , the Giants-Nationals game. I bailed early when they were down 9–1, like second inning, I figured I’d seen enough. To be fair, I had an appointment during the later innings, so I was unable to watch anyway, but while in my meeting my Giants app on my phone started blowing up, notifications goi...

San Francisco Sellers Are Listing Homes for OpenAI and Anthropic Stock

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  Check Out This Weeks Newsletter San Francisco sellers are accepting OpenAI and Anthropic stock as home payment, and every luxury agent in America will be asked about this within 90 days. A nearly $3 million home in San Francisco just hit the market with an unusual ask: the seller will take OpenAI or Anthropic stock as payment. Listing agent Rachel Swann told Fortune she got the idea after watching AI employees show up to her open houses unable to afford homes even though they are worth, on paper, $50 to $100 million. Their wealth is tied up in restricted stock units that won’t vest for years, and the San Francisco housing market isn’t waiting around. Here’s what you need to know about this buyer. Who the AI Wealth Buyer Actually Is Rachel Swann wasn’t the first agent to spot this. In April, investment banker Storm Duncan listed his $8 million Marin County property on LinkedIn offering to exchange it for Anthropic stock. The listing went viral and drew serious interest before he t...

Think Home Prices Will Crash? Here's What the Experts Actually Expect

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  One of the biggest reasons buyers are still sitting on the sidelines is because they think home prices are going to come down. Some believe a crash is coming and they'll get a better deal if they hold off. Others worry they'll buy now and watch their home's value fall later. And nobody wants to overpay or buy right before values drop. But here's the question worth asking: What if the crash you're waiting for isn't actually coming? Because that's what the latest data suggests. Experts Are Not Calling for a Crash If you've spent any time online lately, you've seen posts claiming home prices are about to come crashing down. And it's true that some markets are seeing small price declines right now. But that's not the same thing as a nationwide crash. While some places are going through a price adjustment, Realtor.com data shows home prices are still rising in 71% of housing markets across the country. The trouble is, since negative news sells,...