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Showing posts from February, 2026

Viz Valley

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  “Just Thinking" I’ve got a couple of things to get fired up about this week and I had to share. First things first, we’ve officially hit a major mortgage rate milestone: the 30-year fixed has fallen below 6%. After the rapid rise in rates over the past couple of years and all the uncertainty that followed, I’ve been saying that the housing market would be poised for a real comeback once we broke that 6% threshold. Well, this week, that moment finally arrived. Mortgage rates just hit their lowest level since 2022, with the 30-year fixed averaging 5.98%. That’s not just a dip, it's a turning point for buyers, sellers, and the entire industry. Improved affordability has the potential to bring a surge of pent‑up demand back into the market. Big things could be on the horizon, let’s be ready. Secondly, I’m still fired up after the U.S. men’s hockey team’s gold medal victory on Sunday morning, especially when it is combined with the women’s team bringing home gold earlier in the w...

Four Years Into Higher Rates, the Housing Market Has New Rules

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  Check Out This Weeks Newsletter!  Realtor.com ® reports inventory up 142.1% since 2022, rates peaked at 7.79%, yet median list prices remain 8.1% higher as delistings surge. Higher mortgage rates have reshaped the housing market.  That’s the headline from a new Realtor.com report looking back at four years of higher borrowing costs.  Since January 2022, active inventory has climbed 142.1%. At the same time, the median list price is still 8.1% higher and price per square foot has risen 11.4%. Rates peaked at 7.79% and now sit near 6.10%.  Buyers pulled back. Listings came back in many markets. Prices didn’t collapse. More than 50% of homeowners are still locked into mortgage rates below 4%, which helps explain why so many sellers can afford to wait. Homes are sitting longer. And delistings have more than doubled as a share of active listings.  The housing “reset” a lot of folks were waiting for never showed up. What we’r...

Top Mistakes Homeowners Are Making in 2026 (And How To Avoid Them)

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Let’s be clear: selling your house is absolutely possible right now. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), roughly 11k homes sell every day in this country. And the sellers who are making their moves happen all have one thing in common: they’ve adjusted their strategy to match today’s market. They’re realizing inventory has grown. Homebuyers are more selective. And buyer expectations are higher. The sellers who struggle are usually approaching today’s market with yesterday’s expectations. Here are the three biggest mistakes they're making – and how to avoid them. 1. Pricing Based on What Their Neighbor Got a Few Years Back Setting your price is the most important decision you make when you sell – and the one that’s most often mishandled. Realtor.com data shows almost 1 out of 5 sellers in 2025 had to drop their price. Here’s what those sellers went wrong. Buyers have more choice and more negotiating power now that inventory has grown. And house hunters will a...

Renting vs. Buying: The Numbers Might Surprise You

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Renting can feel like the easier choice right now. There’s no big down payment. No dealing with surprise repairs. And no long-term commitment. But then your rent goes up again. And again. And suddenly the thing that seemed flexible starts looking… expensive, especially considering you’re not building any equity. And once that happens, it’s easy to feel a little trapped in the cycle. That’s because there’s so much chatter today about how buying a home isn’t affordable. But the truth is, the math may work out better than you'd expect based on what’s changed recently. Buying Is More Affordable Than Renting in Many Areas  In a lot of places today, owning a home actually costs less each month than renting a 3-bedroom home. And recent data from ATTOM shows that’s true in nearly 58% of counties across the U.S. ( see chart below ). And that's after you factor in things like insurance and typical maintenance costs.  In other words, even though it may feel like a bit of a shock, the nu...

How Your Equity Could Help Younger Generations Buy a Home

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For a lot of parents or grandparents, watching a family member struggle to buy their first home right now is hard. That's because you saw firsthand how homeownership gave your life more stability and helped grow your net worth – and you want your loved ones to have those same opportunities. But with all the affordability challenges in recent years, that can feel like an uphill battle – even though it’s slowly improving lately. Here’s what you may not realize. You may be in a unique position to help (thanks to the equity in your current house). The Equity Advantage You May Not Be Thinking About You’ve likely owned your home for years, maybe even decades. And during that time, two things happened: Home values rose Your mortgage balance shrank (or you paid it off entirely) That combination has created substantial equity for many homeowners like you. And while you may think of that equity as something you want to have in your pocket for retirement, it can also serve another purpose: he...

Summer in San Francisco

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“Just Thinking" The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco. Despite its popularity, there is no evidence Mark Twain ever uttered that line. Twain lived in San Francisco during the mid‑1860s, writing for newspapers like the Morning Call and Golden Era. The city’s chaos, diversity, and Gold Rush eccentricity shaped his early literary voice. It was also a period when Twain transformed from Samuel Clemens into Mark Twain. His time in San Francisco may have something to do with that quote being attributed to him. The quote about San Francisco’s climate pops in my head several times throughout the year, but especially when we get a little taste of winter. With this week’s rain and cold snap, I think temperatures even dipped into the low 40s. It feels a bit silly to complain when you look at the weather that the folks in other parts of the country. After years of playing and coaching baseball, I’ve simply come to accept that the moment practice begins, so do the rain a...

U.S. Housing Now the Most Unaffordable in History? 7 Data Points You Won’t See in Doomer Tweets

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Check Out This Weeks Newsletter We live in a screenshot economy. A chart (or headline) pops up on your feed, racks up thousands of likes and shares, and in the eyes of consumers, it turns into proof. Proof that housing is doomed. Proof that affordability has never been worse. Proof that the next bubble is already here.  No one loves a moment like this more than housing doomers. They’ve been calling for the next crash for years, and posts like the one below—currently making the rounds on X—fit into that narrative.    Charts travel fast. Context doesn’t.  Real estate professionals know that affordability encompasses numerous factors, including home prices, mortgage rates, wages, inventory, and more.  If the chart above were the whole story, the outlook would be bleak. And yes, affordability issues are a hurdle right now. But several data points are showing gradual improvement in the housing market. It’s the kind you won’t see in doomer posts.  Let’s...

The Price You Set Can Make (or Break) Your Sale

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There’s one decision you're going to make when you sell that determines whether your house sells quickly, or it sits. Whether buyers make an offer, or scroll past it. Whether you walk away with the maximum return, or you end up cutting the price later. And that’s your asking price . The #1 Mistake Sellers Make Today: Trusting the Wrong Number If you’re thinking of moving and trying to figure out what your house may sell for, it’s tempting to start with an online home value tool. They’re fast, free, and easy. And you don’t have to talk to anyone. But here’s the problem: they don’t know your house. And that can be a bigger drawback than you realize. Where Online Estimates Fall Short  Online tools often lag behind the market. They look in the rearview mirror, relying on closed sales and delayed information. And in that sense, they’re using incomplete data . That’s not a miss in how these systems are built. Some information just isn’t available online. Bankrate explains: “ While these ...

The Real Reason Home Sales Slowed in January. And It’s Not What You Think.

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If you saw headlines that talked about how “ home sales fell sharply in January ,” it probably raised an eyebrow – especially if you’re thinking about selling your house. But context matters. Yes, in January, home sales declined. But that has more to do with seasonality and the weather than it does with any big drop off in demand.  What’s Really Behind the Decline?   Reports coming out of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) say the pace of home sales fell roughly 8.4% last month compared to the month before. And that’s true. But it isn’t necessarily cause for alarm.  Data show it’s normal for sales to dip in January. In the last 4 years, that pattern has held true all but once. And sure, the decline we saw this year was a steeper drop off than the norm ( the yellow bars on the right ), but that can be explained too. More on that in a moment. The really important part you’re not going to get from the headlines is this: typically speaking, the pace of home s...

Ricky Carruth - Home Sales Crash - Here's What's Coming

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I follow a highly successful agent and coach out of Alabama named Ricky Carruth, who sends out weekly real estate market updates by email. His breakdown of the market this week was so clear, concise, and on point that I felt it was worth sharing. Last week I told you January existing home sales would be down. They were. Down 8.3%. Everyone's freaking out. But let me show you what's ACTUALLY happening. December pending sales were down 9.5%. Pending sales turn into existing home sales 30-60 days later. Math, not magic. WHY were December pendings down? Inventory DROPPED 18% in one month. Buyers had nothing to choose from. So they waited. Then rates dropped under 6%. Market went bonkers for a week. Multiple offers. Above asking. Then it cooled when rates ticked back up. Exactly what I said would happen. Here's what's coming next week: January PENDING home sales report drops. It's going to be massive. Which means February and March closings SURGE. About the spring rush: ...

Last Stop - San Francisco

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“Just Thinking" With the start of baseball season, I found myself thinking back to an article I wrote last July. On July 25th, I reflected on Justin Verlander finally earning his first win as a Giant, he had gone winless through his first 16 starts, posting a 0–8 record during that stretch. On July 23 rd he beat the Braves, he pitched 5 scoreless innings for a 9–3 victory putting an end to the longest winless streak of his career. None of this, of course, diminishes Verlander’s Hall of Fame résumé: 266 career wins, nine All-Star selections, two World Series championships, the 2011 AL MVP, the 2017 ALCS MVP, three AL Cy Young Awards, and three career no-hitters. Revisiting that moment got me thinking about all the great players who have come to the Giants after establishing their names and their legacies elsewhere. I know that the Dodgers have the deep pockets and have used them to secure top‑tier talent. Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman are all...

The Weekend Salute

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  “Just Thinking" I was driving home from San Francisco on a Friday night a couple of weeks ago, just easing onto the Bay Bridge, when I noticed the digital clock on the dashboard flip to 5:00. Growing up in The City, 5:00 on a Friday wasn’t just a time, it was a signal. The workweek ended, the weekend began. Like clockwork, you’d tune the radio to 104.5 FM, KFOG, because every Friday at 5:00 PM meant The Weekend Salute. The opening notes of “Smoke Two Joints” by The Toyes would roll out over the airwaves, officially kicking off the weekend. It was a ritual Fogheads across the Bay Area instantly recognized, an unofficial alarm bell telling you it was time to relax, to exhale and get into weekend mode, here comes that Friday feeling again. This was before satellite radio, before playlists and algorithms, before Apple Music and Spotify decided what we might like next. As car radios evolved from strictly AM to AM/FM, so did we. We moved on from the station of our youth—KFRC 610 AM, w...

Homebuyer Affordability Improved 7.5% in 2025 as Monthly Payments Dropped

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Check Out This Weeks Newsletter Monthly mortgage payments are easing across the U.S., with MBA’s December data showing a $102 year-over-year drop and the seventh straight improvement in affordability. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s December 2025 Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI), the national median mortgage payment for homebuyers fell to $2,025, down from $2,034 in November. As mortgage rates move lower and incomes keep rising, pressure on buyers is finally starting to ease after years of climbing housing costs. For much of the past two years, higher rates pushed monthly payments sharply higher. The latest MBA data shows that trend steadily reversing. Affordability improved again, and the numbers back it up MBA’s PAPI tracks how new mortgage payments change compared with household income. When the index drops, affordability improves. That’s exactly what happened again in December. Here’s what shifted in the latest report: The national ...