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Showing posts from 2026

Summer in San Francisco

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“Just Thinking" The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco. Despite its popularity, there is no evidence Mark Twain ever uttered that line. Twain lived in San Francisco during the mid‑1860s, writing for newspapers like the Morning Call and Golden Era. The city’s chaos, diversity, and Gold Rush eccentricity shaped his early literary voice. It was also a period when Twain transformed from Samuel Clemens into Mark Twain. His time in San Francisco may have something to do with that quote being attributed to him. The quote about San Francisco’s climate pops in my head several times throughout the year, but especially when we get a little taste of winter. With this week’s rain and cold snap, I think temperatures even dipped into the low 40s. It feels a bit silly to complain when you look at the weather that the folks in other parts of the country. After years of playing and coaching baseball, I’ve simply come to accept that the moment practice begins, so do the rain a...

U.S. Housing Now the Most Unaffordable in History? 7 Data Points You Won’t See in Doomer Tweets

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Check Out This Weeks Newsletter We live in a screenshot economy. A chart (or headline) pops up on your feed, racks up thousands of likes and shares, and in the eyes of consumers, it turns into proof. Proof that housing is doomed. Proof that affordability has never been worse. Proof that the next bubble is already here.  No one loves a moment like this more than housing doomers. They’ve been calling for the next crash for years, and posts like the one below—currently making the rounds on X—fit into that narrative.    Charts travel fast. Context doesn’t.  Real estate professionals know that affordability encompasses numerous factors, including home prices, mortgage rates, wages, inventory, and more.  If the chart above were the whole story, the outlook would be bleak. And yes, affordability issues are a hurdle right now. But several data points are showing gradual improvement in the housing market. It’s the kind you won’t see in doomer posts.  Let’s...

The Price You Set Can Make (or Break) Your Sale

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There’s one decision you're going to make when you sell that determines whether your house sells quickly, or it sits. Whether buyers make an offer, or scroll past it. Whether you walk away with the maximum return, or you end up cutting the price later. And that’s your asking price . The #1 Mistake Sellers Make Today: Trusting the Wrong Number If you’re thinking of moving and trying to figure out what your house may sell for, it’s tempting to start with an online home value tool. They’re fast, free, and easy. And you don’t have to talk to anyone. But here’s the problem: they don’t know your house. And that can be a bigger drawback than you realize. Where Online Estimates Fall Short  Online tools often lag behind the market. They look in the rearview mirror, relying on closed sales and delayed information. And in that sense, they’re using incomplete data . That’s not a miss in how these systems are built. Some information just isn’t available online. Bankrate explains: “ While these ...

The Real Reason Home Sales Slowed in January. And It’s Not What You Think.

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If you saw headlines that talked about how “ home sales fell sharply in January ,” it probably raised an eyebrow – especially if you’re thinking about selling your house. But context matters. Yes, in January, home sales declined. But that has more to do with seasonality and the weather than it does with any big drop off in demand.  What’s Really Behind the Decline?   Reports coming out of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) say the pace of home sales fell roughly 8.4% last month compared to the month before. And that’s true. But it isn’t necessarily cause for alarm.  Data show it’s normal for sales to dip in January. In the last 4 years, that pattern has held true all but once. And sure, the decline we saw this year was a steeper drop off than the norm ( the yellow bars on the right ), but that can be explained too. More on that in a moment. The really important part you’re not going to get from the headlines is this: typically speaking, the pace of home s...

Ricky Carruth - Home Sales Crash - Here's What's Coming

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I follow a highly successful agent and coach out of Alabama named Ricky Carruth, who sends out weekly real estate market updates by email. His breakdown of the market this week was so clear, concise, and on point that I felt it was worth sharing. Last week I told you January existing home sales would be down. They were. Down 8.3%. Everyone's freaking out. But let me show you what's ACTUALLY happening. December pending sales were down 9.5%. Pending sales turn into existing home sales 30-60 days later. Math, not magic. WHY were December pendings down? Inventory DROPPED 18% in one month. Buyers had nothing to choose from. So they waited. Then rates dropped under 6%. Market went bonkers for a week. Multiple offers. Above asking. Then it cooled when rates ticked back up. Exactly what I said would happen. Here's what's coming next week: January PENDING home sales report drops. It's going to be massive. Which means February and March closings SURGE. About the spring rush: ...

Last Stop - San Francisco

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“Just Thinking" With the start of baseball season, I found myself thinking back to an article I wrote last July. On July 25th, I reflected on Justin Verlander finally earning his first win as a Giant, he had gone winless through his first 16 starts, posting a 0–8 record during that stretch. On July 23 rd he beat the Braves, he pitched 5 scoreless innings for a 9–3 victory putting an end to the longest winless streak of his career. None of this, of course, diminishes Verlander’s Hall of Fame résumé: 266 career wins, nine All-Star selections, two World Series championships, the 2011 AL MVP, the 2017 ALCS MVP, three AL Cy Young Awards, and three career no-hitters. Revisiting that moment got me thinking about all the great players who have come to the Giants after establishing their names and their legacies elsewhere. I know that the Dodgers have the deep pockets and have used them to secure top‑tier talent. Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman are all...

The Weekend Salute

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  “Just Thinking" I was driving home from San Francisco on a Friday night a couple of weeks ago, just easing onto the Bay Bridge, when I noticed the digital clock on the dashboard flip to 5:00. Growing up in The City, 5:00 on a Friday wasn’t just a time, it was a signal. The workweek ended, the weekend began. Like clockwork, you’d tune the radio to 104.5 FM, KFOG, because every Friday at 5:00 PM meant The Weekend Salute. The opening notes of “Smoke Two Joints” by The Toyes would roll out over the airwaves, officially kicking off the weekend. It was a ritual Fogheads across the Bay Area instantly recognized, an unofficial alarm bell telling you it was time to relax, to exhale and get into weekend mode, here comes that Friday feeling again. This was before satellite radio, before playlists and algorithms, before Apple Music and Spotify decided what we might like next. As car radios evolved from strictly AM to AM/FM, so did we. We moved on from the station of our youth—KFRC 610 AM, w...

Homebuyer Affordability Improved 7.5% in 2025 as Monthly Payments Dropped

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Check Out This Weeks Newsletter Monthly mortgage payments are easing across the U.S., with MBA’s December data showing a $102 year-over-year drop and the seventh straight improvement in affordability. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s December 2025 Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI), the national median mortgage payment for homebuyers fell to $2,025, down from $2,034 in November. As mortgage rates move lower and incomes keep rising, pressure on buyers is finally starting to ease after years of climbing housing costs. For much of the past two years, higher rates pushed monthly payments sharply higher. The latest MBA data shows that trend steadily reversing. Affordability improved again, and the numbers back it up MBA’s PAPI tracks how new mortgage payments change compared with household income. When the index drops, affordability improves. That’s exactly what happened again in December. Here’s what shifted in the latest report: The national ...

Home Insurance Costs Are Rising: What Buyers Should Plan For

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Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases you’ll ever make. And homeowner’s insurance is what protects that investment. Think of it as your safety net. NerdWallet explains it: Covers Repairs and Rebuilding Costs : If your home is damaged by fire, storms, or other covered events, it helps pay for repairs and possibly even a full rebuild, if that’s deemed necessary. Protects Your Belongings : It can also cover personal items like furniture, electronics, jewelry, and clothing if they’re stolen or damaged. Provides Liability Coverage : And, if someone gets injured on your property, your policy can help cover medical bills or legal expenses. But that peace of mind does come with a cost, and lately those costs have been rising. Why Home Insurance Premiums Are Going Up There are a number of factors causing insurance premiums to rise today. But, in the simplest sense, here’s what’s driving prices up according to the Insurance Research Council (IRC). Severe weather events and natural dis...

Contract Cancellations Just Hit the Highest Level on Record

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Check Out This Weeks Newsletter More than 40,000 home-purchase agreements fell apart in December, the highest cancellation rate Redfin has ever recorded for that month. That’s not a typo. According to a new Redfin analysis of MLS pending-sales data, 16.3% of all homes that went under contract in December ended up canceled. That’s up from 14.9% a year earlier and marks the highest December share since Redfin began tracking the data in 2017. This lines up with what’s happening across the market as buyers gain more options and become increasingly selective. A Record Share of Pending Sales Are Falling Through Redfin’s historical data shows December cancellations have been climbing for years, and 2025 pushed them to a new high. Here’s how the trend looks in context: December 2025 posted a 16.3% cancellation rate, the highest December level on record December 2024 came in at 14.9%, meaning cancellations jumped 1.4 percentage points year over year Prior Decembers generally ...

You May Not Want To Skip Over That House That’s Been Sitting on the Market

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  When you see a house that’s been sitting on the market for a while, the reaction is almost automatic. You start thinking: What’s wrong with it? Why hasn’t anyone bought it yet? Am I missing something? That mindset made sense a few years ago. But in today’s market, you may actually miss out. More Time on Market Isn't Automatically a Concern Anymore A few years ago, homes sold in just a matter of days. Sometimes, hours. Anything that lingered longer than that raised concerns. But that’s no longer the baseline. Inventory has grown. Buyers have more choices. And homes are taking longer to sell across the board. Those are some of the reasons why the typical time it takes a home to sell has climbed this year: And it’s not that 73 days is slow. That’s actually pretty normal for this time of year. It just feels slow because you heard so much about houses being snapped up in the buying frenzy a few years ago. That shift alone explains a lot of what you’re seeing. It’s not necessarily tha...

Two Weeks Until Pitchers and Catchers

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“Just Thinking" Two weeks until pitchers and catchers report, and in anticipation of the diamond dandies returning to the field, this week’s newsletter is going full baseball. Spring Training will feel a bit different this year because it’s a World Baseball Classic year. WBC pitchers report by February 11, and position players on February 12. This is the sixth edition of the tournament which features 20 national teams competing across four countries from March 5–17. Here is the WBC at a glance, 20 teams, 4 pools, 5 teams in each pool. Round-robin pool play 4 games per team, top 2 teams advance from each pool. Single-elimination quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals. Here are some of the rule tweaks: Pitch counts: First Round - 65 pitches, Quarterfinals - 80 pitches, Semis & the Finals - 95 pitches. Designated Pitcher Pool (DPP): Teams may carry extra pitchers outside the main 30‑man roster and activate them between rounds. International tiebreaker: In extra innings, teams star...

Gen X, Millennials to Inherit $2.4T in U.S. Real Estate Wealth Over the Next Decade

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Check Out This Weeks Newsletter A historic wealth transfer is already underway, and luxury real estate is one of its biggest beneficiaries. According to the newly released Coldwell Banker Global Luxury 2026 Trend Report, Gen X and Millennials are set to inherit $4.6 trillion in global real estate wealth over the next 10 years, with the United States expected to capture 52% of that total, nearly $2.4 trillion. The report draws on three years of luxury home sales data, insights from global wealth research firms, and a survey of more than 100 Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Property Specialists.  Together, the data paints a clear picture of where luxury demand is headed, why it remains resilient, and how buyer priorities are shifting in meaningful ways. Gen X and Millennials Take the Lead in the Great Wealth Transfer This next cycle of luxury demand is being driven less by first-time wealth creation and more by inheritance. Gen X is positioned to receive the bulk of near-...