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Showing posts from 2026

Contract Cancellations Just Hit the Highest Level on Record

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Check Out This Weeks Newsletter More than 40,000 home-purchase agreements fell apart in December, the highest cancellation rate Redfin has ever recorded for that month. That’s not a typo. According to a new Redfin analysis of MLS pending-sales data, 16.3% of all homes that went under contract in December ended up canceled. That’s up from 14.9% a year earlier and marks the highest December share since Redfin began tracking the data in 2017. This lines up with what’s happening across the market as buyers gain more options and become increasingly selective. A Record Share of Pending Sales Are Falling Through Redfin’s historical data shows December cancellations have been climbing for years, and 2025 pushed them to a new high. Here’s how the trend looks in context: December 2025 posted a 16.3% cancellation rate, the highest December level on record December 2024 came in at 14.9%, meaning cancellations jumped 1.4 percentage points year over year Prior Decembers generally ...

You May Not Want To Skip Over That House That’s Been Sitting on the Market

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  When you see a house that’s been sitting on the market for a while, the reaction is almost automatic. You start thinking: What’s wrong with it? Why hasn’t anyone bought it yet? Am I missing something? That mindset made sense a few years ago. But in today’s market, you may actually miss out. More Time on Market Isn't Automatically a Concern Anymore A few years ago, homes sold in just a matter of days. Sometimes, hours. Anything that lingered longer than that raised concerns. But that’s no longer the baseline. Inventory has grown. Buyers have more choices. And homes are taking longer to sell across the board. Those are some of the reasons why the typical time it takes a home to sell has climbed this year: And it’s not that 73 days is slow. That’s actually pretty normal for this time of year. It just feels slow because you heard so much about houses being snapped up in the buying frenzy a few years ago. That shift alone explains a lot of what you’re seeing. It’s not necessarily tha...

Two Weeks Until Pitchers and Catchers

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“Just Thinking" Two weeks until pitchers and catchers report, and in anticipation of the diamond dandies returning to the field, this week’s newsletter is going full baseball. Spring Training will feel a bit different this year because it’s a World Baseball Classic year. WBC pitchers report by February 11, and position players on February 12. This is the sixth edition of the tournament which features 20 national teams competing across four countries from March 5–17. Here is the WBC at a glance, 20 teams, 4 pools, 5 teams in each pool. Round-robin pool play 4 games per team, top 2 teams advance from each pool. Single-elimination quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals. Here are some of the rule tweaks: Pitch counts: First Round - 65 pitches, Quarterfinals - 80 pitches, Semis & the Finals - 95 pitches. Designated Pitcher Pool (DPP): Teams may carry extra pitchers outside the main 30‑man roster and activate them between rounds. International tiebreaker: In extra innings, teams star...

Gen X, Millennials to Inherit $2.4T in U.S. Real Estate Wealth Over the Next Decade

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Check Out This Weeks Newsletter A historic wealth transfer is already underway, and luxury real estate is one of its biggest beneficiaries. According to the newly released Coldwell Banker Global Luxury 2026 Trend Report, Gen X and Millennials are set to inherit $4.6 trillion in global real estate wealth over the next 10 years, with the United States expected to capture 52% of that total, nearly $2.4 trillion. The report draws on three years of luxury home sales data, insights from global wealth research firms, and a survey of more than 100 Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Property Specialists.  Together, the data paints a clear picture of where luxury demand is headed, why it remains resilient, and how buyer priorities are shifting in meaningful ways. Gen X and Millennials Take the Lead in the Great Wealth Transfer This next cycle of luxury demand is being driven less by first-time wealth creation and more by inheritance. Gen X is positioned to receive the bulk of near-...

Mortgage Rates Recently Hit a 3-Year Low. Here’s Why That’s Still a Big Deal

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If you’re one of the thousands of homebuyers waiting for rates to fall, you should know it’s already happening. And they recently crossed an important milestone. Rates officially dipped their toes into the 5s – something that hasn’t happened in about 3 years. This moment marked a critical threshold. Now, rates are sitting in the low 6% territory. And expert forecasts project they’ll hover near this range throughout the year. Here's why that’s so good for you. Why Current Rates Are Such a Big Deal A mortgage rate doesn’t just affect the interest you end up paying on your home loan. It shapes your entire buying experience. When rates were up around 7% just one year ago, a lot of buyers felt priced out. Payments were higher. Budgets felt tighter. Affordability was a bigger challenge. That’s especially true for first-time homebuyers, who felt the biggest pinch. But according to industry experts, that’s starting to change now that rates are slowly inching down. Let’s break down why. Rig...

Why Rising Foreclosure Headlines Aren’t a Red Flag for Today’s Housing Market

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If you’ve seen headlines saying foreclosure activity has been climbing for 10 straight months, it’s easy to assume that's a sign of trouble for the housing market. But when you look at the full picture, a few simple truths become clear: Today’s foreclosure numbers are in line with what’s considered normal High home equity is keeping most homeowners in a strong financial position None of the data points to a big wave of distressed sales that’ll crash the market Foreclosure Filings Are Up 32%, But That Doesn’t Mean the Market’s in Trouble If you peel the layers all the way back, what everyone is actually worried about is that we’re headed for a repeat of what happened in 2008. Back then, riskier lending practices and an oversupply of homes for sale brought home prices down and led to a significant increase in foreclosures. A lot of people felt the impact. But this isn’t the same situation. Yes, ATTOM data shows foreclosure filings are up 32% year-over-year. And that increase is going...

Home Updates That Actually Pay You Back When You Sell

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  Planning to sell this spring? While you may be tempted to hold off until the first blooms or the spring showers hit, that's actually waiting too long to get started by today’s standards. Buyers have more options than they did a few years ago. So, it's worth it to tackle repairs now and make sure your house is set up to stand out. Because you don’t want to be caught scrambling right before the spring rush. Or, running out of time to do the work your house really needs.  The key is focusing on updates that actually matter. And that’s exactly where return-on-investment (ROI) data comes in handy. Which Projects Tend to Pay Off? Every year, Zonda looks at which home improvements deliver the most bang for the buck when you go to sell the home. And the results can be a little surprising. The green in the chart below shows the updates where sellers have the biggest potential to add value based on that research: While there's a wide range of projects represented in this data, th...

Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth.

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  It’s hard to scroll online lately without seeing some version of this claim: “Big investors are buying up all the homes.” And honestly, if you’re a homebuyer who’s lost out on a few offers, that idea probably sounds believable. When homes are expensive and competition is tight, it’s easy to assume giant companies are scooping everything up behind the scenes. But here’s the thing: what people assume is happening and what the data actually shows aren’t always the same. Let’s look at what’s really happening with large institutional investors in today’s housing market – because the numbers tell a much different story than the headlines. The Number Most People Won’t See Online Let’s start with the most important stat. According to John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC), large institutional investors – those that own 100 or more homes – made up just 1.2% of all home purchases in Q3 of 2025 ( see graph below ): That’s it. Out of every 100 homes sold, only about 1 went to a large ...

More SF Iconic Buildings

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  “Just Thinking" In last week’s post, I reflected on two iconic San Francisco landmarks, one fading into memory (Alioto’s Restaurant) and one standing strong between San Francisco and Marin County (the Golden Gate Bridge). Earlier this week, an insightful SFGate article by Andrew Chamings caught my attention. It connected perfectly with last week’s “Just Thinking” titled: Why San Francisco’s Most Iconic Buildings Are Sitting Empty. Chamings explores several once‑beloved institutions now left vacant, buildings that were repurposed, reimagined, or replaced over the decades as the city continually reinvents itself. Change has always been part of San Francisco’s story, sometimes inspiring, sometimes bittersweet. These empty structures now stand as architectural time capsules, reminders of eras, communities, and cultural symbols that helped shape the city. Here are some of the buildings highlighted in the article: Louis’ Restaurant On Point Lobos Avenue perched on a cliff, overlooking...

New Mortgage Data Signals a Turning Point in the Rate Lock-In Era

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  Check Out This Weeks Newsletter New FHFA data shows 21.2% of mortgages now exceed 6%, topping the 20.0% below 3% as rates stay in the 6.2% range and the lock-in era begins to shift. For nearly four years, the housing market’s been frozen by one stubborn force: millions of homeowners locked in mortgage rates below 3% during the pandemic boom. And they haven’t had much reason to give them up. That lock-in effect has kept inventory tight and prices stubbornly elevated. But according to the latest mortgage data, that balance finally shifted. FHFA’s Outstanding Residential Mortgage statistics show mortgages above 6% now outnumber those below 3% for the first time since the pandemic. It’s a small numerical crossover with big psychological and structural implications for how the market moves in 2026. In Q3 2025, 21.2% of outstanding mortgages carried interest rates of 6% or higher, edging past the 20.0% share with rates below 3%. Mortgage rates peaked at 7.04% in January 2025, eased int...

The #1 Regret Sellers Have When They Don’t Use an Agent

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  Want to know the #1 thing homeowners regret when they sell without an agent? It’s that they didn’t price their house correctly for their current market. According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), those sellers agree pricing their home effectively was the hardest part of the process. Top 5 Most Difficult Task for Sellers Who Didn’t Use an Agent: Getting the price right Preparing or fixing up the house Selling within the desired time frame Handling all the legal documents Finding the time to manage all aspects of the sale And that makes sense. Pricing isn’t as simple as picking a number from an online estimate or copying what your neighbor got last year. It takes real insight into: What buyers are actually willing to pay today How much competition you have in your area What similar homes nearby are really selling for How desirable your area or neighborhood is The condition of your house Without that context, it’s easy to overshoot the mark, espec...

January 5th - Two Icons

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  “Just Thinking" As time marches on, we ease into the new year, change is evident, change is inevitable. I saw a couple of items in the news this week that jumped out at me and reinforced the fact that change is inevitable. The date, January 5 th and the significance that date holds for two iconic San Francisco landmarks Alioto’s Restaurant and the Golden Gate Bridge. As for the Golden Gate Bridge, January 5, 1933, construction began with the excavation of, what would be, 3.25 million cubic feet of dirt for the structure’s huge anchorages. As for Alioto’s, January 5, 2026, the Port of San Francisco began demolition of this iconic landmark. As a young boy growing up in San Francisco, I have memories of these two structures throughout my life. As a youngster, crossing the Golden Gate Bridge was a happy occasion as it signified the beginning of a trip up the 101 to a family get away in Clear Lake. Going over the fog shrouded mammoth riding in the back of the Country Squier Station ...

New Data Shows Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 37%

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     Check Out This Weeks Newsletter New Data Shows Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 37% The gulf between sellers and buyers just hit one of its widest points on record.  According to a new Redfin report, the U.S. housing market had 37.2% more sellers than buyers in November, equal to roughly 529,770 more people trying to sell a home than people trying to buy one.  Only this past summer saw a bigger imbalance. That shift has pushed the national market deeper into buyer’s market territory, which has big implications for pricing, negotiation, and the way you prepare clients in 2025. Read on for the biggest takeaways from Redfin’s report. The Buyer-Seller Gap Keeps Widening The imbalance has been growing for months. Here’s how the spread has shifted: November gap: 37.2% October gap: 35.6% One year ago: 17% The gap has stayed above 35% every month since April of this year, and the U.S. has had at least 10% more sellers than buyers since May of 20...

Thinking about Selling Your House As-Is? Read This First

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  If you’re thinking about selling your house this year, you may be torn between two options: Do you sell it as-is and make it easier on yourself? No repairs. No effort. Or do you fix it up a bit first – so it shows well and sells for as much as possible? In 2026, that decision matters more than it used to. Here’s what you need to know. More Competition Means Your Home’s Condition Is More Important Again Over the past year, the number of homes for sale has been climbing. And this year, a Realtor.com forecast says it could go up another 8.9% . That matters. As buyers gain more options, they also re-gain the ability to be selective. So, the details are starting to count again. That’s one reason most sellers choose to make some updates before listing.  According to a recent study from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), two-thirds of sellers (65%) completed minor repairs or improvements before selling ( the blue and the green in the chart below ). And only one-third (...