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It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown

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     “Just Thinking” There I was last night, working on my newsletter and struggling to come up with a topic for this week’s “Just Thinking”, when there was a knock at the door, followed by another and another. It’s Halloween, Superheroes, Villains, Ghouls, Ghosts and Goblins knocking at the door for this year’s treat. Our number of visitors is way down when compared to our old neighborhood, where traffic jams of cars, vans and buses dropping of their excited bounty hunter starting at dusk and culminated with teens in hoodies and masks carrying 7/11 plastic bags traveling in packs, knocking loudly and begrudgingly mumbling out “Trick or Treat”. This was typically followed by a turning out of the porch light and blowing out the candles in the jack-o-lanterns. What a great time to get into character as Charles Dicken’s Ghost of Halloweens past, thoughts of a simpler time when Dad would take us the 2 streets on either direction to get our buckets filled by neighbors and friends that were
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75% of Gen Z Renters in Major Cities Are Rent-Burdened

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  Almost half of all renter households in the U.S. are rent-burdened—meaning the cost of renting swallows up more than 30% of their income.  That’s according to a new analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) by Zillow and StreetEasy.  Gen Z renters (ages 18-25) are the most affected, with three in five spending over 30% of their household income on housing costs. In some metros, like San Diego, Los Angeles, and Sacramento, that share is even higher, with nearly three-quarters of Gen Zers struggling to pay rent.  The situation for Gen Z renters is similar but slightly better than what Millennial renters faced in 2012, when 60.2% nationwide spent over 30% of their income on housing. Among young adults, the rent burden peaked at 62% in 2011 before steadily declining to 55% in 2019.  Fast forward to the COVID pandemic, and surging rental demand, paired with decades of undersupply, drove up rents nationwide.  The experience of struggling to pay rent on an en
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Location: Martinez, CA 94553, USA
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"The City" in Transition

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  “Just Thinking” I was speaking with a new client the other day who grew up on the peninsula and now lives near me in the East Bay. I let her know that I was born and raised in San Francisco, we talked about “The City” and she told me how much she enjoyed visiting it with her family as a young girl then she told me that she hadn’t been there in a couple of years and that the last couple times that she visited she was disillusioned by its current condition. I told her how much I enjoyed growing up there and how proud I was to be from San Francisco. I also told her that I always intended to move back to “The City” once the boys were grown and on their own, but because of how much it has changed, I no longer desire to move back. San Francisco has become a completely different city in the last 25 years. I don’t want to sound like the typical old guy, “get off my lawn” or “back in my day”, but it seems to me that the difference between previous generations discussing how much “The City” ha
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Location: Martinez, CA 94553, USA
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Despite Inventory Rise, Home Buyers Remain Cautious

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  Check Out This Weeks Newsletter More listings are coming to the real estate market, but home sales continue to be sluggish. Read more from NAR’s latest housing report. Home buyers may finally be finding more inventory options this fall, but they’re still being cautious about entering the real estate market, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Wednesday. “Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a 4-million-unit pace for the past 12 months, but factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy. Perhaps, some consumers are hesitating about moving forward with a major expenditure like purchasing a home before the upcoming election.” Total existing-home sales—which reflects completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—dropped 1% in September compared
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Location: Martinez, CA 94553, USA
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Top U.S. Metros to Watch as Mortgage Rates Fluctuate

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  A new study from Realtor.com® highlights the major U.S. real estate markets likely to see changes as a result of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut last month.  In September, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to its lowest level since February 2023.  Following the Fed’s announcement in September, Realtor.com® predicted that mortgage rates would stay in the low 6% range through the end of 2024, with further declines resulting in high-5% rates by spring 2025.  Since then, following the latest jobs report, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has once again increased past 6.50% and has continued to rise.  As rates fluctuate in response to key economic indicators, metros with the highest shares of owner-occupied homes with a mortgage will feel the most impact.  Having a mortgage with a low interest rate is a fantastic benefit to existing homeowners, but sometimes being in a great position can limit your options. Although mortgage rates have eased, market rates continue to exceed current rat
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Location: Martinez, CA 94553, USA
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Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater

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  “Just Thinking” There are so many old sayings that we use, or at least we used to use, that we say out of habit and know what we intend them to mean but have no idea of the origin. Here are a few that I came up with and how they came to be, let me know if you have any that I missed. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater - Used as a caution against rejecting all parts of a plan because there are problems with parts of it. This came from the household before there was running water, a large tub was filled and the family would take turns bathing, starting with the father and descending by seniority. By the time the baby had its bath, the water was so dirty that it was difficult to see through it. Bite the bullet - To endure something painful or difficult with courage. This comes from times when soldiers would bite on a bullet during surgery to cope with the pain before painkillers. Going Cold Turkey – To quit something abruptly without gradual steps. One theory on this that when a
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Location: Martinez, CA 94553, USA
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Consumer Sentiment Hits 30-Month High as Mortgage Rate Optimism Grows

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The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) report for September 2024 is in, and by the looks of it, consumer optimism has significantly improved.  The overall index went up 1.8 points from August to 73.9—its highest level in over two years.  The most likely reason for that is the general expectation among consumers that mortgage rates will continue on a downward trend over the next 12 months.  According to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey for September, a record 42% of consumers expect rates to decline—up from 39% the previous month and 24% in June. This also compares to 31% who expect rates to remain the same and 27% who expect them to rise.  Source: Fannie Mae Also, nearly four in ten (39%) survey respondents expect home prices to increase in the next 12 months—up from 37% in August—shedding some light on why the improvement in overall consumer sentiment hasn’t yet translated into a boost in home sales.  Overall perception of homebuying conditions went up a tick this mon
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Location: Martinez, CA 94553, USA
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